Tag: interest rates

Updated December 16, 2024. Let’s take a look at how to profit from the substantial inflation that is already starting to happen. The US government has been printing massive amounts of new money. On January 6, 2020, the US Federal Reserve had around $4 trillion dollars. On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars. As of 2021, over 40% of US dollars were printed in the last 12 months.

Viewing The US Federal Reserve Numbers

Updated June 22, 2022. Below is the same chart from updated to May 24, 2022:

Simultaneous News Hits At Same Time

This is what has happened in the United States. But, with the world reaching the end of the long-term debt cycle, and having the COVID-19 hitting at the same time, all countries are facing the same problem. Every government and every central bank, not just the US Federal Reserve but also the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, etc. As a result, it looks like inflation is their best business plan as they will profit from substantial inflation very soon.

Jake Tran did an interesting YouTube video titled, “Why Haven’t We Seen Hyperinflation?” He interviews Peter Schiff who points out that we have had an incredible surge in government spending. A lot of the spending has been related to COVID-19 and to the economic shutdown. Many people were no longer out there earning money and the governments have looked to replace some of that money with government stimulus money. There were no tax hikes, nor prioritization of government spending. So the governments had no choice but to ramp up the printing of new money – BRRRRRRRRRR…. The governments printed the new money and then put it into circulation through government programs.

No Historical Precedent

All the currency that has been created is hugely staggering. Jason Hartman, podcast host, says that we have never seen anything like this before. There is no historical precedent to what has now happened and it feels like we are in uncharted territory. However, with all the new money many people do not think this is a problem. Nevertheless, all this new currency has a distinct possibility of being highly inflationary as time passes. A look at the chart below you can see how high the deficit has reached.

So the question is, where is the inflation? Everyday goods like food and gas have not increased by 40% and other countries are seeing the equivalents in their price of goods. So what gives and where is the inflation?

Updated September 18, 2024. The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a hefty half percentage point Wednesday, moving ahead with its first rate cut in four years and cheering markets that expected an emphatic move amid a softening jobs picture.

Updated July 26, 2023. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates again by a quarter of a point. This brings the benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Updated June 22, 2022. The war between Ukraine and Russia continues. President Biden announced that the US will not purchase oil and gas from Russia in an attempt reduce the foreign money that Russia receives.

As a consequence, the U.S. gasoline price on June 13, 2022 was $5.006 a gallon. Food prices were 9.4% higher in April 2022 than in April 2021. This is the largest annaul increase in food prices in 41 years. As a result, grocery prices leaped 10.8% for the year.

Four Factors of Inflation

The question is, what are the factors that cause inflation? As well, how do you profit from substantial inflation? The answer is that the amount of money being printed is just one factor that makes up inflation. According to the YouTube channel Economics Explained, the other big factors of inflation include: 

• Industrial output. The economic output is the number of things available. The higher this number, the lower the prices will be and vice versa.
• Employment. Too little employment leaves employees looking for jobs which leads to decreased wages and decreased prices.
• Money supply. Increasing the money in an economy will increase the prices that everyone has to pay.
• Velocity of money. The movement of money is also a factor as to how fast money goes from one person to another.

Inflation Analysis

What we see is that the money supply has definitely gone up. Industrial output is more or less a non-factor because businesses are not producing as much, but also people are buying less right now. However, employment and the velocity of money have decreased because of a high degree of uncertainty in the world. As a result, Inflation is starting to creep up, but for right now, it is happening slowly.

US Markets & the Everything Bubble

What we have seen in the US is an increase in the markets. For example, the stock markets, real estate, and bitcoin have been on a continuous tear as prices continue to go up. This is so big because of its effects on society. Many people have called what we are seeing right now as an “everything bubble”. 

In March 2021, Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, and I believe is one of the wisest people in the stock market today, was being interviewed by the Daily Journal Corporation in Los Angeles, CA. A lot of people were asking Charlie Munger about the very real possibility of a stock market bubble. Here is what Charlie had to say: “Yes, I think this must end badly but I don’t know when. I think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble.” 

Undoubtedly, Charlie Munger is very intelligent individual and I am sure he knows exactly how he will profit from the irritating stock market bubble and the substantial inflation that is already taking place.

No Experience for Pre-Retirement Investors

Rising rates have been forecast before. However, this time the analyst survey is showing that it is already proceeding. Pre-retirement investors are not experienced in dealing with a market backdrop of steadily rising rates. The Federal Reserve on Friday, March 19, 2021, said that it will not extend an exemption that would end on March 31st. In essence, the Fed won’t extend relief for banks because they believe that banks have strong capital positions.

Starting on April 1, 2021, the nation’s biggest banks will not be able to exclude treasuries from SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) calculation. This and its ramifications are big news. It looked like everything was status quo, but the status quo will not continue. This is something that clearly upset the markets and will continue to upset the markets.

The Cantillon Effect

About 250 years ago, a famous economist named Richard Cantillon wrote a book where he talked about the “cradle of political economy”. This is called the Cantillon Effect. The premise of the book is that people who are close to the money benefit the most. The people who are farther from the money benefit less because prices have already risen. 

Wall Street, the central bankers, the politicians, the tech entrepreneurs, the wealthy people take advantage of being close to the money. These individuals get to take advantage of all of these opportunities first. This circumstance has a tremendous impact on wealth inequality and is the basis for huge problems in society.   

Honestly, if you look at the people who are close to the money they do not care about anyone else, they are just thinking about themselves. In my opinion, they are greedy beyond comprehension. This is why these central bankers have created the stimulus checks. They want to keep the average worker from rising up, rioting, and having civil unrest as a measure of security.

The central bankers want to take advantage of this Cantillon Effect opportunity. They want to profit immensely from the situation we all see before us. The good news is that you can profit from the massive inflation that is directly ahead of all of us too. Here is how to anticipate and prepare for the next year and a half to three years and how not to be a victim of the wealth gap.

How You Can Benefit from Inflation

The other way to is benefit from inflation. Inflation is the secret way that the governments and central bankers can wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars of debt off the balance sheet very quickly. Remember that the US government’s debt is owed in US dollars. So, as a result, we can inflate our currency to pay off the debt. 

This is an extremely powerful inflation strategy and it is the plan that we should follow as well. Like it or not, this is the game that is being played. This is a plan that is way too big to do anything about. The secret is to learn how to profit from substantial inflation ahead. The result will be an incease your investments and your wealth.

So, we should align our interest with the two most powerful forces the human race has ever known: governments and central banks. We need to align our business plans so that we are on the same plan that they are on.

Wealth Redistribution

Inflation is a hidden tax and it is a wealth destroyer. Inflation destroys the value of our savings, our stocks, our bonds, and our equity in our real estate. But inflation destroys the value of our debt as well. Herein is the huge advantage of inflation. Inflation is the most powerful method of wealth redistribution. Inflation redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and from old people to young people. 

First let’s see what happens if you borrow money from a bank. If you go to a bank and ask for a loan, you will get the money at today’s value. Yet when it comes time to pay the money back, you will pay it back at tomorrow’s lower value because of inflation. You have won the inflation game! Why? You have won because you will pay back the inflation gain in cheaper dollars. This is a winning strategy that will have you saving the extra as profits.

Inflation will also redistribute the wealth from old people to young people. How does inflation do this? In most cases, old people have assets such as savings accounts, investments in the stock market, bonds, and equity in real estate. These assets are their preparation for the future and their retirement.

Young People Will Benefit

The problem for the old people is that inflation is munching on those assets. On the other hand, the young people are just starting out in life and they usually have a lot of debt. As a result, inflation is an intergenerational wealth transfer from the older people to the younger people. The good news is that the younger people don’t have to worry about an inheritance because the powerful force of inflation will do a lot of it for them!

If the interest rate on the debt is cheap and the inflation rate is high, then the debt is benefiting you. This is essentially a negative interest rate. Higher inflation in the future will help to negatively impact lenders and help people’s debt. This is the secret to profit from substantial inflation ahead. Are you thinking of taking advantage of the power of inflation? For the intelligent person, the secret is to look for commodities that are indexed to inflation. 

One Possibility: Maximize With Real Estate

Everyone on Earth needs a place to live. Using debt in a positive way to create wealth is the key when it comes to income property real estate. An investor who decides to become a landlord and purchases multiple income properties understands this concept. Debt is the hidden wealth creator and it has helped millions of people already. Read my blog on the 3 Ways To Really Boost Your Rental House Cash Flows.

Let’s take an example of a person who buys an owner-occupied house to live in. At this time the mortgage rates are historically low. But with inflation already kicking in, you know that the interest rates on everything will increase. Inflation also affects the interest on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Below is a US 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate chart from 1971 to 2021. If you look at the right hand side, you can already see the mortgage interest rate going up.

Inflation: Prepare Now

To anticipate and prepare for the next year and a half to three years and not be a victim of the wealth gap, take advantage of the powerful force of inflation. Align your strategy with the governments and central banks. This is the hidden secret to profit from the substantial inflation that is ahead. This is a win-win strategy that will give everyone an edge.

In my opinion, I suggest preparing your inflation strategy right now if you have not done so already. In the comments, please let me know your thoughts on the massive amount of money printing taking place today and on your personal views on inflation. 

---

Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness