Wave your magic wand because buying during a recession can be a very smart move. Photo credit: Dreamstime
Updated December 16, 2024. Real estate investing during a recession can be a very wise move. Investment in properties can be an intelligent decision if your goal is to build long-term wealth and financial stability. As you have probably seen, the stock market and other traditional investment options are extremely volatile with excessive moves in either direction during times of the economic downturn. However, real estate has a history of holding its value and providing steady returns. Below are some key benefits of investing in real estate during a recession.
Benefits of Investing During Recessions
A key benefit of investing in real estate during a recession is a wise decision because property prices are at a low point. As a result, investors can buy properties at a discount. With the mindset of buying and holding for the long-term, this can potentially put the investor in an excellent position when the economy eventually bounces back. In addition, most of the population is unable to have the cash necessary to purchase property during a recession, creating a buyer’s market for those who can.
A further advantage of investing in real estate during a recession is rental income. Everyone needs a place to live. Even in a weak economy, people still need a place to sleep. Consequently, rental properties can provide a steady stream of income for investors. An additional fact is that many people choose to rent instead of buying during a recession, thus creating a strong demand for rental properties.
Lastly, the big factor to consider is price appreciation. The price appreciation of a property can depend on a variety of factors. These details can include big factors such as the location, future development plans, and the supply and demand of the property in a given location. We, and our partners, always look to force appreciation on our properties by carrying out and maximizing repairs and renovations on the residential properties we purchase.
$450 Billion of Mortgages Will Be Maturing
These are some key benefits of investing in real estate during a recession. It has been estimated that $450 billion of mortgages collateralized by apartment buildings will be maturing in 2023 and 2024.
As we see in today’s real estate market, a lot of borrowers will not be able to refinance because of high interest rates and still make have a positive cashflow on the property. This is a huge buying opportunity!
You Will Need Three Things For Success
Get the knowledge on how to do this.
Network, network, network.
Look for real estate investors, like us, that have partnered with other investors. We, and our partners have the private capital available and are ready to buy when great opportunities arise.
Additional Information on Inflation
Profit From Substantial Inflation Ahead. Let’s take a look at how to profit from the substantial inflation that is already starting to happen. The US government has been printing massive amounts of new money. On January 6, 2020, the US Federal Reserve had around $4 trillion dollars. On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars. As a result, as of 2021, over 40% of US dollars were printed in the last 12 months.
A Bible Verse From Psalms
Psalm 128:2 NLT
2 You will enjoy the fruit of your labor. How joyful and prosperous you will be!
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Yale Endowment Fund. Photo credit: Wall Street Physician.
Updated December 16, 2024. David Swensen, the Yale fund pioneer who reshaped investing, has forever changed the way we view investing. Moreover, Swensen completed a 35-year tenure as Yale University’s endowment chair.
Grew the Yale Fund from $1.3 billion to More Than $31 billion
But, more importantly, David Swensen grew Yale’s endowment fund from $1.3 billion in 1985 to more than $31 billion today. As a result, this means the fund generated returns of 13.1% through June 2020. These are outstanding returns. So, let’s take a look at how he did it.
Swensen never commanded the fame of Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, or Jack Bogle. However, among industry insiders he is widely considered to be in their ranks.
Willing to Play the Long Game to Win
One aspect of Swensen is the fact that he was willing to play the long game. For example, he invested in assets that had much longer time frames to reach maturity, but that had spectacular return profiles. The key is that his approach to investing worked brilliantly!
Swensen Had An Unlikely Beginning
Like many great careers, David Swensen had an unlikely beginning. On the contrary, many people say that he was self-confident, yet selfless. Consequently, when Swensen was first approached by Yale University in 1985, he assumed a teaching career.
At that time, Swensen was 31 years old, and he had the economic theory with a Yale Ph.D in economics. Nevertheless, he was very unfamiliar with investing.
Unshackled From Conventional Wisdom
Even so, being a novice investor proved to be a blessing. Unlike past endowment chairs, Swensen was unshackled from conventional wisdom. Therefore, at the core of what became the “Yale Model” are the principles that Swensen learned from his mentor, Nobel Laureate James Tobin.
In 2009, Swensen wrote the book Pioneering Portfolio Management. In this book, Swensen describes the Yale Model in -depth, also sometimes known as the Endowment Model. I highly recommend reading his book.
The Yale Model
Particularly of interest was his recognition of liquidity. For that reason, Swensen realized that liquidity comes at a heavy price for lower returns.
Therefore, the Yale fund pioneer who reshaped investing is thus characterized by relatively heavy exposure to asset classes such as private equity when compared to more traditional portfolios. The Yale Model is also more heavily reliant on investment managers who specialize in these specific asset classes.
Don’t Try to Time the Market
David Swensen also realized that market timing was not the answer. He realized that market timing represents a losing strategy.
Swensen recognized that there is no evidence of any large institutions having a consistent ability to get in when the market is low and get out when the market is high. He comprehended that attempts to switch between stocks and bonds, or between stocks and cash, in anticipation of market moves have been relatively unsuccessful.
Swensen’s Allocation Thinking Was Nonexistent
Large institutional funds were almost entirely composed of U.S. equities, some foreign equities, cash, and fixed income. Suffice to say that in the 1980’s, Swensen’s type of thinking was by and large almost nonexistent.
The Yale Model is different from other types of investing because it allocates only a small amount to traditional U.S. equities and bonds. To replace these small allocations, this type of investing relies more on alternative investments.
Accordingly, Swensen built a portfolio allocation model that was more heavily weighted in alternative assets.
Yale Fund Asset Strategy & Allocation
hedge funds
venture capital (VC) funds
real estate
natural resources
private equity
Yale Model Endowment Asset Allocation. Photo credit: Financial Times.
Three Strategy Approach
Construct a portfolio with money allocated to six core asset classes.
The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis.
Invest in low-cost index funds and exchange-traded funds.
Swensen Model Portfolio
David Swensen described his model portfolio in a 2015 interview with NPR. It consists of the following asset allocation:
How To Replicate Swensen Portfolio Using Vanguard
How To Replicate the Swensen Portfolio using Vanguard. The expenses after the fund name are the expenses. Photo credit: Wallstreetphysician.com/invest-like-yalie-model-portfolio-david-swensen-investment-manager-yale-endowment/
How To Replicate Swensen Portfolio Using Fidelity
How to replicate the Swensen Portfolio using Fidelity. The expenses after the fund name are the expenses. Photo credit: Wallstreetphysician.com/invest-like-yalie-model-portfolio-david-swensen-investment-manager-yale-endowment/
Finding The Best Allocations
If you decide to use the Swensen model portfolio for your investments, I wish you success. In Addition, always remember to invest the funds in a tax-efficient manner.
Put the tax-inefficient REITs, bonds, and emerging markets funds in tax-referred or retirement accounts. Then put your Total U.S. Stock Market and International Stock Market funds in taxable accounts.
Needless to say, David Swensen, the Yale fund pioneer who reshaped investing, has forever changed the way we view investing.
Other Real Estate Strategies To Create Wealth
I would also recommend the strategy of searching directly for houses to invest in. The Three Real Estate Strategies That Work Every Time are: residential rentals; wholesaling; and rehab and resell. These are the most popular real estate strategies that produce consistent results regardless of the timing.
Portfolio of Rental Properties for Passive Income
More importantly, learn the best ways to to improve your rental property cash flows, by reading my blog on the three ways to Boost Your Rental Property Cash Flows. I recommend this strategy because of the excellent real estate tax breaks available on your taxes annually. This strategy will help you build wealth.
Please let me know your thoughts on using his portfolio. Best wishes!
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
US & Other Central Banks Printing Endlessly New Dollars. Photo credit: Unsplash.
Updated December 16, 2024. Let’s take a look at how to profit from the substantial inflation that is already starting to happen. The US government has been printing massive amounts of new money. On January 6, 2020, the US Federal Reserve had around $4 trillion dollars. On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars. As of 2021, over 40% of US dollars were printed in the last 12 months.
Viewing The US Federal Reserve Numbers
FRED M1 Money Stock, 2020. Photo credit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1REAL
Updated June 22, 2022. Below is the same chart from updated to May 24, 2022:
FRED M1 Money Stock, updated May 24, 2022. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1REAL
Simultaneous News Hits At Same Time
This is what has happened in the United States. But, with the world reaching the end of the long-term debt cycle, and having the COVID-19 hitting at the same time, all countries are facing the same problem. Every government and every central bank, not just the US Federal Reserve but also the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, etc. As a result, it looks like inflation is their best business plan as they will profit from substantial inflation very soon.
Jake Tran did an interesting YouTube video titled, “Why Haven’t We Seen Hyperinflation?” He interviews Peter Schiff who points out that we have had an incredible surge in government spending. A lot of the spending has been related to COVID-19 and to the economic shutdown. Many people were no longer out there earning money and the governments have looked to replace some of that money with government stimulus money. There were no tax hikes, nor prioritization of government spending. So the governments had no choice but to ramp up the printing of new money – BRRRRRRRRRR…. The governments printed the new money and then put it into circulation through government programs.
No Historical Precedent
All the currency that has been created is hugely staggering. Jason Hartman, podcast host, says that we have never seen anything like this before. There is no historical precedent to what has now happened and it feels like we are in uncharted territory. However, with all the new money many people do not think this is a problem. Nevertheless, all this new currency has a distinct possibility of being highly inflationary as time passes. A look at the chart below you can see how high the deficit has reached.
Federal Deficit Trends Over Time 2000-2020. Photo credit: https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/deficit/trends/
So the question is, where is the inflation? Everyday goods like food and gas have not increased by 40% and other countries are seeing the equivalents in their price of goods. So what gives and where is the inflation?
Updated September 18, 2024. The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a hefty half percentage point Wednesday, moving ahead with its first rate cut in four years and cheering markets that expected an emphatic move amid a softening jobs picture.
Updated July 26, 2023. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates again by a quarter of a point. This brings the benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Updated June 22, 2022. The war between Ukraine and Russia continues. President Biden announced that the US will not purchase oil and gas from Russia in an attempt reduce the foreign money that Russia receives.
As a consequence, the U.S. gasoline price on June 13, 2022 was $5.006 a gallon. Food prices were 9.4% higher in April 2022 than in April 2021. This is the largest annaul increase in food prices in 41 years. As a result, grocery prices leaped 10.8% for the year.
Four Factors of Inflation
The question is, what are the factors that cause inflation? As well, how do you profit from substantial inflation? The answer is that the amount of money being printed is just one factor that makes up inflation. According to the YouTube channel Economics Explained, the other big factors of inflation include:
Industrial output. The economic output is the number of things available. The higher this number, the lower the prices will be and vice versa.
Employment. Too little employment leaves employees looking for jobs which leads to decreased wages and decreased prices.
Money supply. Increasing the money in an economy will increase the prices that everyone has to pay.
Velocity of money. The movement of money is also a factor as to how fast money goes from one person to another.
FRED Velocity of M1 Money Stock. Photo credit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V
Inflation Analysis
What we see is that the money supply has definitely gone up. Industrial output is more or less a non-factor because businesses are not producing as much, but also people are buying less right now. However, employment and the velocity of money have decreased because of a high degree of uncertainty in the world. As a result, Inflation is starting to creep up, but for right now, it is happening slowly.
US Markets & the Everything Bubble
What we have seen in the US is an increase in the markets. For example, the stock markets, real estate, and bitcoin have been on a continuous tear as prices continue to go up. This is so big because of its effects on society. Many people have called what we are seeing right now as an “everything bubble”.
In March 2021, Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, and I believe is one of the wisest people in the stock market today, was being interviewed by the Daily Journal Corporation in Los Angeles, CA. A lot of people were asking Charlie Munger about the very real possibility of a stock market bubble. Here is what Charlie had to say: “Yes, I think this must end badly but I don’t know when. I think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble.”
Undoubtedly, Charlie Munger is very intelligent individual and I am sure he knows exactly how he will profit from the irritating stock market bubble and the substantial inflation that is already taking place.
No Experience for Pre-Retirement Investors
Rising rates have been forecast before. However, this time the analyst survey is showing that it is already proceeding. Pre-retirement investors are not experienced in dealing with a market backdrop of steadily rising rates. The Federal Reserve on Friday, March 19, 2021, said that it will not extend an exemption that would end on March 31st. In essence, the Fed won’t extend relief for banks because they believe that banks have strong capital positions.
Starting on April 1, 2021, the nation’s biggest banks will not be able to exclude treasuries from SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) calculation. This and its ramifications are big news. It looked like everything was status quo, but the status quo will not continue. This is something that clearly upset the markets and will continue to upset the markets.
The Cantillon Effect
About 250 years ago, a famous economist named Richard Cantillon wrote a book where he talked about the “cradle of political economy”. This is called the Cantillon Effect. The premise of the book is that people who are close to the money benefit the most. The people who are farther from the money benefit less because prices have already risen.
Wall Street, the central bankers, the politicians, the tech entrepreneurs, the wealthy people take advantage of being close to the money. These individuals get to take advantage of all of these opportunities first. This circumstance has a tremendous impact on wealth inequality and is the basis for huge problems in society.
Honestly, if you look at the people who are close to the money they do not care about anyone else, they are just thinking about themselves. In my opinion, they are greedy beyond comprehension. This is why these central bankers have created the stimulus checks. They want to keep the average worker from rising up, rioting, and having civil unrest as a measure of security.
The central bankers want to take advantage of this Cantillon Effect opportunity. They want to profit immensely from the situation we all see before us. The good news is that you can profit from the massive inflation that is directly ahead of all of us too. Here is how to anticipate and prepare for the next year and a half to three years and how not to be a victim of the wealth gap.
How You Can Benefit from Inflation
The other way to is benefit from inflation. Inflation is the secret way that the governments and central bankers can wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars of debt off the balance sheet very quickly. Remember that the US government’s debt is owed in US dollars. So, as a result, we can inflate our currency to pay off the debt.
This is an extremely powerful inflation strategy and it is the plan that we should follow as well. Like it or not, this is the game that is being played. This is a plan that is way too big to do anything about. The secret is to learn how to profit from substantial inflation ahead. The result will be an incease your investments and your wealth.
So, we should align our interest with the two most powerful forces the human race has ever known: governments and central banks. We need to align our business plans so that we are on the same plan that they are on.
Wealth Redistribution
Inflation is a hidden tax and it is a wealth destroyer. Inflation destroys the value of our savings, our stocks, our bonds, and our equity in our real estate. But inflation destroys the value of our debt as well. Herein is the huge advantage of inflation. Inflation is the most powerful method of wealth redistribution. Inflation redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and from old people to young people.
First let’s see what happens if you borrow money from a bank. If you go to a bank and ask for a loan, you will get the money at today’s value. Yet when it comes time to pay the money back, you will pay it back at tomorrow’s lower value because of inflation. You have won the inflation game! Why? You have won because you will pay back the inflation gain in cheaper dollars. This is a winning strategy that will have you saving the extra as profits.
Inflation will also redistribute the wealth from old people to young people. How does inflation do this? In most cases, old people have assets such as savings accounts, investments in the stock market, bonds, and equity in real estate. These assets are their preparation for the future and their retirement.
Young People Will Benefit
The problem for the old people is that inflation is munching on those assets. On the other hand, the young people are just starting out in life and they usually have a lot of debt. As a result, inflation is an intergenerational wealth transfer from the older people to the younger people. The good news is that the younger people don’t have to worry about an inheritance because the powerful force of inflation will do a lot of it for them!
If the interest rate on the debt is cheap and the inflation rate is high, then the debt is benefiting you. This is essentially a negative interest rate. Higher inflation in the future will help to negatively impact lenders and help people’s debt. This is the secret to profit from substantial inflation ahead. Are you thinking of taking advantage of the power of inflation? For the intelligent person, the secret is to look for commodities that are indexed to inflation.
One Possibility: Maximize With Real Estate
Everyone on Earth needs a place to live. Using debt in a positive way to create wealth is the key when it comes to income property real estate. An investor who decides to become a landlord and purchases multiple income properties understands this concept. Debt is the hidden wealth creator and it has helped millions of people already. Read my blog on the 3 Ways To Really Boost Your Rental House Cash Flows.
Let’s take an example of a person who buys an owner-occupied house to live in. At this time the mortgage rates are historically low. But with inflation already kicking in, you know that the interest rates on everything will increase. Inflation also affects the interest on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Below is a US 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate chart from 1971 to 2021. If you look at the right hand side, you can already see the mortgage interest rate going up.
FRED 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States. Photo credit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
Inflation: Prepare Now
To anticipate and prepare for the next year and a half to three years and not be a victim of the wealth gap, take advantage of the powerful force of inflation. Align your strategy with the governments and central banks. This is the hidden secret to profit from the substantial inflation that is ahead. This is a win-win strategy that will give everyone an edge.
In my opinion, I suggest preparing your inflation strategy right now if you have not done so already. In the comments, please let me know your thoughts on the massive amount of money printing taking place today and on your personal views on inflation.
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Generate More Wealth. Photo credit: Unsplash. Thank you @morganhousel
Updated December 16, 2024. If you are worried about the world economy, you are not alone. We have watched as businesses and workers have struggled with the new regulations imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that the U.S. will generate more wealth in the next two years under President Joe Biden than in the previous decades combined.
As many know, we have just added more US debt to the economy than the debt of World War I and II together. With President Biden, you may be asking me why I would make such a bold statement on the future of the US and the world. For the most part, I believe that many factors are setting up nicely for you to generate more wealth in the next two years. Let’s take a look at those factors.
Biden Signs Stimulus
On Thursday, March 11, 2021, President Joe Biden signed the passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. As he signed he said that the bill and the IRS will begin sending out payments as soon as the next day – Friday, March 12, 2021.
All the markets in 2021 are going up. The Russell 2000 holds relative strength and is leading the indexes higher. Look at the other indexes in the stock market and in real estate. They are increasing rapidly because of inflation. But don’t be scared of rates yet. For this reason, I believe that this environment should be very favorable for stocks and other risk assets.
Rates Are Just Part of the Picture
If we examine the recent decline in the major indexes, we can see that the timing appears to coincide with a sharp increase in interest rates.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury. Photo credit: CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y?qfsearchterm=
Updated September 18, 2024. Finally, the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a hefty half percentage point Wednesday, moving ahead with its first rate cut in four years and cheering markets that expected an emphatic move amid a softening jobs picture.
Updated June 22, 2022. On Wednesday, June 15, 2022 the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75%. This is the largest move the Fed has made since 1994. In the projections released after the meeting, the Fed expects to further raise interest rates to roughly 3.4% by the end of this year.
The US is constantly printing dollars with no end point target. In my opinion, ride it out for two years if possible. But be aware as long as the US money presses keep printing money everything will most likely rise. Likewise, if you feel you are missing out on a bull market and you want to get in, be careful and look at the technical analysis for each stock you invest in. Just remember that the market is most likely in a bubble in the long term it could be very unsustainable.
Everything I have just written above is true. But I understand your concerns if you are sceptical. If you pay attention to the news, they focus on negativity. Why do they focus on negativity? One simple reason: because it sells.
Entrepreneurs: Rocket Up
However, in my opinion, people in the world, particularly in the US, these entrepreneurs and businessmen are just getting started. These people are launching new businesses, inventing new technologies, solving real world problems, and creating cutting-edge medicines. Previous generations would be astonished at our life in the 21st century.
I would argue that middle class Americans today are far better off than the wealthiest people from 100 years ago. For example, the middle class today have air conditioning, the internet, and medical care available every day. Travel is available if needed. As a result, I would say that the innovations the world has gone in the last 100 years have been breathtaking, to say the least. To clarify, I believe individuals will generate more wealth in the next two years. So let’s learn what people are doing so that you can increase your wealth as well.
Big Increases In Life Expectancy
The increase in life expectancy is amazing. More than one billion people have been lifted out of poverty. Take a look at the chart below of the increase in life expectancy that has happened in the past 150 years.
The increase in life expectancy has created the one thing that man cannot control and that is time. The addition of more time in a person’s life will have a dramatic effect. As a consequence, life expectancy will continue to increase the work output for individuals and for businesses. As a direct result, these individuals will see the opportunity that is presenting itself and generate more wealth in the next two years.
I believe the key here is time. If we increase the precious amount of time we have on Earth by twenty years to thirty years or more the results will be amazing. I say this because time has always been a limiting factor to bring things to fruition with businesses and technology. Please take a look at the chart below. Do you agree?
World Life Expectancy. Source: Riley, Clio Infra 2015, and UN Population Division 2019. Photo credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#/media/File:Life_expectancy_by_world_region,_from_1770_to_2018.svg
Launching New Businesses
I believe that the U.S. will generate more wealth in the next two years. Let’s take a closer look at this exciting arena of launching new businesses, inventing new technologies, solving real world problems, and creating cutting-edge medicines.
Chart of Number of Business Establishments Less Than 1 Year Old in the U.S.:
Number of Business Establishments Less Than 1 Year Old in the U.S. 1994-2020. Photo credit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/235494/new-entrepreneurial-businesses-in-the-us/
Look at the number of new businesses happening now. In March 2020, there were 804,398 new businesses that were less than 1 year old. This is an increase from the March 2019 figure of 770,609.
Small Business Survival Rate
50% of small businesses survive 5 years or more, while only 25% make it to 15 years or more. 20% of new US businesses fail within their first two years, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 45% fail during the first five years. 29% of small businesses failed because they ran out of money, while 17% failed due to a lack of sound business model and poor product offering.
In general, the small business success rate depends on a number of factors. One of the most important factors is to be passionate about your business. Then set goals and plan ahead. But always keep your mind open to new ideas.
The most essential plan of action is to do these three things very rigorously: budget carefully, be disciplined, and focus on the needs of your customers. By realizing this awesome opportunity to generate wealth and doing these necessary steps, you increase the chances of taking your startup business and growing it into a $1 million+ company.
Technology And Innovations
We all know about the astounding growth of technology companies. Elon Musk is perhaps one of the great innovators of all time. In the last year, from 2020 to 2021, Tesla stock has risen more than seven times. Intuitive Surgical is another one. In 2004 Intuitive was $6 a share. Now it is more $700 a share in 2021. If you bought these stocks they are awesome gains to have in your portfolio.
But the secret is to find these technology companies when they are just getting started. If you look at the real builders meaning the innovators, the entrepreneurs you will find that innovation is accelerating faster every day. For example, when the microprocessor first came out in 1971 it could hold about 2,000 transistors. However, now in 2021, the microprocessor can have more than 39 billion!
Prediction: U.S. Will Generate Great Wealth
I believe that the U.S. will generate more wealth in the next two years under President Joe Biden than in the previous decades combined. If you are not sure where to look, I highly suggest real estate. Billionaire Andrew Carnegie famously said that 90% of millionaires got their wealth by investing in real estate.
If you need wisdom, ask our generous God, and he will give it to you.
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Warren Buffett is an American investor, business tycoon, philanthropist, and the Chairman & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Photo credit: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-mutual-fund-may-have-cracked-the-buffett-code-berkshire-hathaways-secret-sauce-2020-09-21
Updated December 16, 2024. My years of research tell me time and time again that the best stock to invest in is BRK.B by Berkshire Hathaway. The company is known for its control and leadership by Warren Buffett, who serves as chairman and chief executive. Berkshire Hathaway is a publically traded entity and is an overwhelmingly American multinational conglomerate holding company that is based in Ohama, Nebraska. This is a publicly traded stock under the tickers Berkshire Hathaway A or Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B).
The main difference between Berkshire Hathaway Class A and Class B shares is their price. The Berk B shares are much more affordable and offer the benefit of flexibility. Subsequently, if an investor owns just one share of Class A and is in need of some cash, the only option is to sell that single share, even if its price far exceeds the amount of capital he needs to access.
In contrast, a holder of Class B shares can liquate part of his or her Berkshire Hathaway holdings just up to the amount needed to meet cash flow cash flow requirements. In addition, Class B also provides a potential tax benfit. Its much lower price means that BRK.B stock can be passed to heirs without triggering the gift tax as passing Class A shares does.
One final difference is that Class A shares can be converted into an equivalent amount of Class B shares any time a Class A shareholder wishes to do so. The conversion privilege does not exist in reverse. Moreover, Class B shareholders can only convert their holdings to Class A by selling their Class B shares and then buying the equivalent in Class A.
Warnings Of Possible Financial Crisis Emerging
Many people are wondering what is happening with the U.S. and global markets. In a wide-ranging conversation, I recently watched a video where you were interviewed by Charlie Rose in April 2022. In the beginning of the interview you explained that after reading The Intelligent Investor, you understood to buy businesses that are publicly traded. You became an owner of the business and you did not care whether a stock went up or down the next day, or next week, or next month, or next year because you understood the principal of value investing. You didn’t care because you knew businesses. Looking at the numbers of the businesses that you completely understood made you comfortable enough to invest in these companies.
As Warren has said, he is an extremely bright man who is terribly interested in the work that he does. He has spent a lifetime doing it and he have surrounded himself with people who bring out the best in him. Warren has said many times that he doesn’t have to be a genius in what he does and that’s the great thing about it.
From my perspective, the genius is that Warren Buffett realized, many years ago, is that he is in a game that allows him to succeed over time to the highest of levels because he didn’t really need extra intelligence. He has dedicated himself and his eventual success by focusing on one thing: investments.
Warren said it best himself: you need the right orientation where the investor would think about what the companies are going to be worth 10 or 20 years from now. What I like best is that if a person truly internalizes everything, all the necessary ingredients, they too will make a lot of money. Warren Buffett has said, “I got rich when I understood this.”
The Gem: Berkshire Hathaway Stock
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is an American multinational conglomerate holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska and is owned by Warren Buffett. As probably everyone knows, Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors of all time. As well, my years of reading and research tell me over and above that BRK.B that the best stock to invest in.
Similarly, BRK.B is a stock that combines the best value in publicly traded companies as well as privately owning a number of companies themselves. Investing in Berkshire Hathaway provides investors with property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, finance, manufacturing, retailing, and services.
Berkshire Loves Collecting Dividends
Berkshire Hathaway famously doesn’t pay dividends. Nevertheless, Berkshire stock loves collecting them. In 2018 alone, Berkshire took in $3.8 billion in dividends. “A sum that will increase in 2019,” Buffett said in the annual letter.
As of August 2020, Berkshire Class B stock is the seventh-largest component of the S&P 500 Index. On January 10, 2018, Berkshire Hathaway appointed Ajit Jain and Greg Abel to Vice-Chairman roles. Abel is vice chairman for non-insurance business operations, and Jain is vice chairman of insurance-operations. In addition, for the fiscal year 2019, Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings of US$81.4 billion, with an annual revenue of US$254.6 billion, an increase of 2.7% over the previous fiscal cycle.
Berkshire Hathaway Is Undervalued By 20%
The Berkshire Hathaway current valuation is $495 billion. If Berkshire Hathaway businesses are valued at 20 times operating earnings approximating the S&P 500 Index, then they would have an enterprise value of $480 billion.
In comparison, subtracting the float of $130 billion would then result in an equity value of $350 billion. Then adding $350 billion (businesses) to $385 billion (stock portfolio plus cash) results in an overall equity valuation of $715 billion. As such, the Berkshire Hathaway current valuation of $495 billion represents a 30% discount!
Berkshire Has Top Management
Berkshire Hathaway is a stock that is run by top management. Consequently, the huge advantage is that the management regularly optimizes the companies Berkshire Hathaway invests in so that you don’t have to. Basically, you can sleep well every night knowing that your investment is secure.
When Warren Buffett speaks, Wall Street and investors listen intently. That’s because Berkshire Hathaway has a track record few other money managers can match. Over the last 55 calendar years, Berkshire Hathaway’s stock rose at more than 20.3% annualized pace, versus 11.8% for the S&P 500. More than 20% annually for 55 years! In my opinion, this is one of the best investments of a lifetime. The best stock to invest in is BRK.B. I ask you to research Berkshire Hathaway, if you haven’t already, and add your comments below.
Berkshire Stock With A 18.6% Annualized Return Since 1965 Versus S&P 500 With A 11.8% Annualized Return. Photo credit: https://svencarlin.com/berkshire-vs-sp-500/
Berkshire Hathaway Publicly Traded Portfolio
Below are the publicly-traded U.S. stocks owned by Warren Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, as reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission in filings made available to the public. There are times when Berkshire asks for, and receives, the SEC’s permission to temporarily withhold data on some stock holdings.
Update March 2020. With the Covid-19 pandemic creating uncertainty around the world, it is unsurprising that many may have seen their top stocks underperform the benchmark indexes. Investing legend Warren Buffett is no exception. Indeed, it is reassuring that Berkshire Hathaway has managed to find value in this volatile environment.
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Many investors regularly look at investor Warren Buffett’s top holdings to see what they are and then to do their on research and decide if they like the value of these stocks. Berkshire Hathaway current top holdings by size are Bank of America, Apple, Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, American Express, Verizon, U.S. Bancorp, and General Motors.
Warren Buffett’s investment strategy is to build a portfolio of blue-chip companies with strong balance sheets, and then to hold this stock in BRK.B and invest with the right orientation over a long time frame. Apple is Berkshire Hathaway’s largest portfolio holding, comprising 49.1% of the portfolio. In addition, Buffett has held shares of Coca-Cola since the late 1980s; the company accounts for about 8.6% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio. Furthermore, in 2011, Buffett began investing in Bank of America when Berkshire Hathaway purchased in a private offering 50,000 shares of the company’s preferred stock at a liquidation value of $100,000 per share.
Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett’s investment model has always been transparent, straightforward, and consistent. Fundamentally, he invests in fairly-priced, high-dividend paying blue-chip companies that feature strong balance sheets. Buffett buys such stocks with the intent to hang onto them over the long haul.
Listed below are the public and private businesses that add up to the best stock to invest in, which, in my opinion, is BRK.B.
Clothing: Union Underwear Corp., Fruit of the Loom, Garan, Fechheimer Brothers, Russell Corporation, H.H. Brown Shoe Group, Acme Boots, Brooks Sports, Justin Brands, Chippewa, Justin Boots, Justin Original Workboots, Nocona Boots, and Tony Lama Boots
Building Products:
Acme Building Brands, Benjamin Moore & Co., Johns Manville, MiTek Inc., Shaw Industries, Inc., Clayton Homes Inc.
Flight Services:
FlightSafety International Inc., and NetJets Inc.
Retail:
Nebraska Furniture Mart, RC Willey Home Furnishings, Star Furniture Company, Jordan’s Furniture, Inc, CORT Business Services, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Helzberg Diamonds, The Pampered Chief, Ltd., See’s Candies, Dairy Queen, Orange Julius, Karmelkorn, Oriental Trading Company, and Pilot Flying J
Media:
Buffalo Evening News, Buffalo Courier-Express, Business Wire, Omaha World-Herald, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Winston-Salem Journal, The Eagle, Waco Tribune-Herald, Tulsa World, Greensboro, North Carolina-based News & Record, Virginia’s Roanoke Times, Press of Atlantic City, and ABC affiliate WPLG
Real Estate:
Berkshire Hathaway’s Energy’s HomeServices of America, Home Capital Group Inc., Store Capital, and Clayton Group
Other Non-insurance:
From 1986 to 2003: Albecca Inc., CTB International Corp., McLane Company, Scott Fetzer Companies including: Kirby Home Cleaning Systems, Wayne Water Systems, Ginsu Knives, and World Book Encyclopedia.
In 2007: acquired TTI, Inc, and Marmon Group
In 2014: Berkshire Hathaway Automotive created through the acquisition of Van Tuyl Group; acquired Duracell from Procter & Gamble in an all-stock deal.
Finance and Financial Products
Clayton Homes
Investments
Russell Corporation including Spalding NBA Official Basketballs, and BIKE Athletic Company
Lubrizol Corporation
Preferred stock in Wrigley
Goldman Sachs
GE
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation
Indian insurance BerkshireInsurance.com
H.J. Heinz Co.
Berkshire owns 1.74 million shares of Gannett, and Precision Castparts Corp.
2020: Berkshire added a position in the Q2 2020 of 20 million shares in mining company Barrick Gold
2020: Q3 2020 agreed to buy Dominion Energy’s natural gas transmission and storage operations.
Between September 2019 and August 2020, Berkshire purchased more than 5% of the outstanding stock of each of the five largest Japanese general trading companies: Itochu, Mitsubishi, Mitsui Sumitomo, and Marubeni.
The Rich Didn’t Get Wealthy By Investing In Stocks
Have you ever wondered how the wealthiest investors in the world became wealthy? For example, if you look at Warren Buffett you might think that the wealthiest investors in the world enjoyed their success due to wise investing decisions.
However, despite the fact that the best stock to invest in is BRK.B, the reality is that Warren Buffett is a rare exception. Buffett’s investment returns over the decades have been nothing short of phenomenal. His investments over the years are the reason for his success. While replicating his success might not be possible, you can emulate his strategies to become a successful investor.
One of the primary reasons for Buffett’s success has been his ability to recognize the deeper value behind a company. The best stock to invest in is BRK.B, but understand that Warren Buffett invests in businesses that he understands and knows that the inherent value of the business is more than its evaluation at the time of investing. As a result, all the work that Warren Buffett and his team of people do will add up to the best stock to invest in, which is BRK.B.
Create A Product Or Service To Add Value
Contrary to popular belief, the wealthiest investors did not use stock market investing to find the best stock to invest in such as BRK.B in order to maintain the wealth they had already acquired. Almost all of them made their wealth by starting companies that were very successful or some have received an inheritance.
I invite you to read my FinancialGoodness.com: About The Writer and scroll down to “Think of Knowledge As A Tree.” One of the entrepreneur’s I have studied is Ryan Daniel Moran.This entrepreneur realized that you have to strategically position yourself to create value in service to other people. Please read my blog on how to Build Unlimited Wealth With Money’s Untold Truth. To summarize this article, find the biggest problem you can think of and then solve that problem. You have to create a product or a service that people really want and then think of a way to deliver it to them. This is the secret for creating unlimited wealth.
Imitate Strategies Of Successful Investors
Once your business is profitable, you can then use some revenue to maintain your wealth that you have acquired over the years. You can then imitate the strategies of successful investors. In this way you can use your wealth by investing in wise investment moves in the stock market. The combination of these two strategies, of having a profitable business and then investing in the markets, is really the best way to maintain and to increase your wealth over time.
Consequently, have you ever thought about the relationship between money and wealth? Specifically the fact that money is just paper with a number on it. Nevertheless, people have equated money to value.
In the end, perhaps this was never about the money. Let’s face it, it was all about the freedom that you were looking for. Accordingly, if you make wise investments you will have the ability to do whatever you want, whenever you want. Thus I am talking about your choice of freedom.
This is the dream of freedom that you were seeking all along. Truly I challenge you to do it and have the courage, the belief, and the strength to make this your reality! When you do this, you will have completely conquered how to build unlimited wealth with money’s untold truth because now you know the secret to having a lifestyle of richness.
Conclusion
I hope you enjoyed my research on the best investment to make. If a stock market crash happens again or a big dip occurs, the long-term buy and hold value stock is apparent to me. My years of research tell me again and again that the best stock to invest in is BRK.B.
To conclude, I like the peace of mind that the BRK.B stock has with it. In the same way, I can invest in BRK.B and rest good every single night. In the final analysis, I know that the leading management at Berkshire Hathaway will look after my investment and make sure it grows slowly over time for years to come.
“An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.”
– Benjamin Franklin
Matthew 7:8 NLT. For everyone who asks, receives. Everyone who seeks, finds. And everyone who knocks, the door will be opened.
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Unexpected COVID-19 Impacts On Single Family Homes. Photo credit: Unsplash. Thank you Avi Waxman.
Updated April 13, 2024. Many states are loosening their self-isolation orders and are allowing people to return to work. But the road ahead for the US economy coming out of this pandemic induced recession is a long one. I obviously have many concerns about this. Hopefully, the employers have implemented the necessary procedures so that people can work together and still be self-isolated while maintaining distance between the co-workers. Let’s learn more about the unexpected COVID impact on homes.
The Good and The Bad
First, the good news. According to Myles Udland, during the transition phase, the bounce in economic activity we are going to see is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast. We are currently in this phase of the unexpected COVID impact on homes.
But in Bank of America’s view, the impact from the lockdown phase that hit the economy hardest in March and April and the return of the economy to pre-COVID-19 levels of GDP will be larger drag on the economy than previously expected.
Bank of America expects that the second quarter GDP of 2020 to decline at an annualized rate of 40%. Not good. In addition, the 40% decline is a revised estimate from BofA’s previous number of 30% GDP decline. To put the 40% decline in perspective, during the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the GDP decline was 4%. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic is possibly ten times bigger than the previous recession in 2007-2008.
Looking at the next 18 months, BofA sees a soft labor market, disinflation, and a lack of investment conspiring to keep growth below pre-COVID levels into 2022. Disinflation is what happens when price slows down temporarily. Deflation, which is the opposite of inflation, is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy.
The news media has been covering the effects on the real estate market as the coronavirus has swept the world in the last few months. But interestingly, three surprising and unexpected situations have occurred that effect single family homes. What is even more surprising is that the mainstream media hasn’t really been reporting on these three situations. Taking all these things into consideration, the unexpected COVID impact on homes could surprise you.
Surprise #1: Dramatic Inventory Reduction
The first major surprise that has occurred is that there has been a drastic inventory reduction. The inventory is the available properties on the market for buyers to purchase. This is known as supply. This inventory reduction means that the supply of houses has dropped dramatically.
It seems that once the virus hit hard enough so that lock downs occurred, what a lot of normal sellers did was to take their property off the market. They did that for a number of reasons. Some sellers didn’t want to move in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.
Other people thought that buyers were not going to be out and about looking for a new home to buy. Others didn’t want to sell their property when they thought about all the people who would be traipsing through their home. As we all know now, a person could be infected with the COVID and not know it for days.
What does this mean to the selling of homes? As it turns out, the selling of single family homes is a huge deal. When you have to sell your property you compete against all the other similar priced houses. Let’s say that you have done your homework and know the area and the comps in that area and decide to put your house on the market for $200,000 USD. But there is another house that is identical to your property that is in just as good a shape and they are listed at $175,000 USD. What does this mean to you?
That means that any of the available buyers in the marketplace looking for a property like yours are going to go to the $175,000 listing before they are going to go to yours. The offer is going to go to the $175,000 listing first. That’s just how it is.
With a reduction in supply it makes it so much easier. Now you can ask for and get full price or even more than full price for your house. A reduction in inventory is a very good thing to have. If you sell houses this is what you dream of.
Perhaps you are thinking that it is possible that when the coronavirus pandemic wears off and people get back to “normal” life the prices of houses will stabilize.
However, we also have to consider the fact that some of the people who were going to sell decided not to. Why? They have been living in their house for two more months while self-isolating and they have decided to fix the cosmetic problems. Now they have made the decision that they are going to stay in that property and enjoy living there. Why? Because the house is all fixed up and they realize that the house isn’t so bad after all.
Maybe you have been reading the news and have heard that there is going to be a tsunami of foreclosures because of the people who have lost their jobs and are not going to be able to pay the mortgage. This may or may not happen. The foreclosure process is a lengthy process in most US states. So it takes a long time.
Many people are still in their forbearance period and they could stay in the forbearance period for quite a while. So if there is an influx of foreclosures it wouldn’t happen until the end of 2020 at the earliest. As well, many of the lenders could tack the forbearance onto the back of the loan. So it is possible that there might not be this flood of foreclosures.
Surprise #2: Increase In House Demand
Surprise two is the drastic increase in house demand. These are people looking to buy a single family home. When you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. If everyone is self-isolating at home, then people are going to want to have a real home with a lot of amenities.
People are not going to want to be in an apartment building or in a condo complex where they are right next to all their neighbors. Seems pretty logical and this is exactly what is happening. There is now a huge demand for people to have their own home.
But this increase in demand goes a step further. We are talking about people living in urban areas. Now that our society has had to shift to Zoom conference meetings as opposed to in-person meetings. Now more and more people are not commuting to work on a daily basis.
You might be one of these people as you start to get used and like working from home. As companies get used to managing their teams from home it is possible that there’s going to be less of a requirement for someone to drive into the center of a city to go to work in a big office building. It might be possible to commute from a home that’s further away from the inner city core.
What that means is that it is possible to increase demand for homes that are more suburban and even rural houses out in the country. These are homes where people have more room to do more things on their own property. As you can see already, the unexcepted COVID impact on homes is going to have a huge effect on where people decide to live.
Are you worried about unemployment as you read the newspapers? Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the US had hit record employment numbers. But now in the US the unemployment rate was at 14.7% in 43 US states in April, 2020. However, that means that more than 85% of the people in the US still have their jobs. Many of these 85% of people are moving towards the idea of buying a home.
As we know, we are having an affordable housing crisis in the US. There is even more of a demand on affordability and portability as you move further away from the downtown areas as you find your price point houses in the suburbs or further out. Can you see what is happening? To that affordability crisis we add a much lower supply of houses for sale combined with an increase in house demand. Wow.
Surprise #3: Rising Value Of SFH
Hopefully you came to realize the significance of what this means when you suddenly have dramatically lower levels of supply and dramatic demand. Those of you that have been following real estate probably guessed it: you will see rising real estate values.
Rising property valuations are actually happening right now. Unbelievable right?! Now it is a fact. As you know, the basic fundamentals of real estate values in your area is all about supply and demand.
Right now we have both working in our favor. Even though less people can get a mortgage loan, there’s still so much demand with the people who can get a loan versus the supply. Many experts are looking at what is happening and are scratching their heads saying they didn’t see it coming. But remember in real estate 101, it is all about supply and demand. Check out this article from The Wall Street Journal on single family homes. Here is another article from Forbes saying that the coronavirus effect of lower interest rates and commodities have traditionally been beneficial for real estate.
People are saying that the prices of houses in the future are going to have the same value as they do now or they could rise a little bit more slowly. Either way, make the most of this situation. As a seller, you cannot ask for anything better!
If you are a real estate investor or just like to dabble with properties, I invite you to read my blog on the Three Real Estate Investing Strategies That Work Every Time. I promise that the strategies discussed in this article will definitely help you increase your wealth over time.
Hopefully you gained some insight from this blog on the unexpected COVID impact on homes. Until my next blog, stay healthy and best wishes!
Last Updated on April 13, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge through education in the areas of personal finance, real estate, and investments. George has been an owner of a real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker he has sought the truth in everything he does, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Updated December 16, 2024. Ray Dalio is an extremely successful American billionaire hedge fund manager and philanthropist. Nonetheless, in a recent article Ray Dalio predicts end of long-term debt cycle as we have known it. This is the logic that Dalio uses to make his case.
Comparing 2020 To The Great Depression
The economy of 2020 is producing a lot of debt by the government. Also the economy of 1930 to 1945 was very similar. In 2020 we were seeing zero interest rates. In 2020, the Federal Reserve was buying the Treasury debt and getting that money to mostly Americans in some imperfect, but remarkably large way. The Europeans were doing the same with the European banks that are smaller banks than the U.S. banks. The World lives with about 70 percent US dollars and only a small percentage of Euros.
Problem Of Limited Number Of Banks
But the problem is that there aren’t many banks around the world. Consequently, the rest of the world is going to have gap holes that won’t be filled. The result is that the American printing of money and the borrowing will leave us with a lot of debt and monetization. But who will pay this?
In 2020, the debt figure is sitting at about $25.3 trillion dollars. That’s about 107% of the GDP. Dalio asks the question: with all the debt on our hands and with the printing press running, who at the end of the day will pay the bill?
Inflation is the secret way that the governments and central bankers can wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars of debt off the balance sheet very quickly. The US government’s debt is owed in US dollars so we can inflate our currency to pay off the debt.
We should align our interest with the two most powerful forces the human race has ever known: governments and central banks. We need to align our business plans so that we are on the same plan that they are on. To learn how to align your business plans, read Profit From Substantial Inflation Ahead.
Four Economic Driving Factors
Ray Dalio explains that the economy template that is being used has been used for the last one thousand years. Dalio predicts end of long-term debt cycle as we have known it. Dalio sees four factors that are the driving forces of our economy and our lifestyle.
Productivity
The first and the most powerful is productivity. Productivity comes from people learning and investing and doing things well. Productivity grows slowly at about 1 or 2 or 3% a year. In addition productivity is not volatile because knowledge is involved, but it grows. That raises our living standards over a period of time.
Short-Term Debt Cycle
Next there’s a short-term debt cycle. The short-term debt cycle is made up of recessions and expansions. The booms and recessions last about eight to ten years.
Long-Term Debt Cycle
Then there is a long-term debt cycle. The long-term debt cycle which goes on about once every 50 or 75 years. The long-term debt cycle is when you begin a new type of money and a new type of credit. This happened in 1945 when the New World order at the end of World War II with the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system. The Bretton Woods system defined all currencies in relation to the US dollar. The US currency was now effectively the world currency and the standard to which every other currency was pegged. Currently 70% of the money and credit that exists in the economy is running by dollars and what you have traditionally is a breakdown.
Interior & Exterior Politics
The fourth influence on the economy is largely how we deal with each other. This includes interior and exterior politics. The interior politics is how do you deal with the wealth gap? How do you deal with the value gap? Do you have a common mission? Do we have a American dream that we can agree on and that we are pursuing together? Or do we fight over wealth?
History Of Mankind & Revolutions
Dalio says that when we look at the history of mankind, what we see are revolutions. When we look at these revolutions, some revolutions are peaceful and sometimes they’re disruptive. But on a granular level, there is a wealth shift that needs to take place.
Examples are when Roosevelt shifted policies and changed taxes. In other countries, there was a turning over of democracy when Hilter came to power because of that gap. There are also external politics. Here we are look at the power between countries. A good example is a rising power challenging an existing power which results in a risk of war.
Possible End Of Short-Term Debt Cycle
Dalio says that right now, at least in the short-term debt cycle, it appears that we are coming to the end of that cycle. The chart below of the Dow Jones history gives a good indicator for the entire USA markets. As the graph shows, it has been 12 years with a bull market.
Big Possibility Of The End Of Long-Term Debt Cycle
If we look at the Dow long-term debt cycle of the United states that goes back 70 to 80 years, we get a better look at the long-term debt cycle which averages 50 to 75 years. Dalio points out that the United States has been exactly 75 years since the start of this current long-term debt cycle that we are in that started in 1945. If you look at the graph below you can see that things might be about to change. This is the reason why Ray Dalio predicts end of long-term debt cycle.
Clearly, Ray Dalio predicts end of long-term debt cycle. The big question is this: are we in a part of the long-term debt cycle that is very similar to the 1930 to 1945? If we are, watch out. The ingredients are exactly the same as now with massive debt, low interest rates and the vast printing of money. To find out even more, watch this YouTube video: Ray Dalio: This Crisis Will Be Bigger Than The 2008 Recession.
The bad news is that this period of time from 1930 to 1945 wasn’t exactly the most fun or profitable period to be in for investors. As we recall this was the time of The Great Depression and the markets were quite volatile.
So now the question of what to do with investments during this time? Dalio says that the worst thing that one can do is think that they can time the markets. So what the individual investor needs to do is know how to diversify well and in a balanced way.
What Investments To Make?
Ray Dalio predicts end of long-term debt cycle as we have known it. The question is, what stock market investments would be correct? For years Ray Dalio has created something he calls the All Weather Portfolio. I invite you to read the specific details of Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio.
Investing on a regular basis rather than trying to time a lump sum investment can help you become a more disciplined investor. You’re forced to invest regardless of whether the price is high or low. This takes some of the emotion out of investing and avoids any delays in putting your money to work.
Passive income is necessary for creating your retirement income. Most financial planners advise saving between 10% and 15% of your annual income. Please read my blog on How To Invest Wisely In The Stock Market. This article has my top four passive income strategies for stocks.
My Prediction Of The Markets
In my opinion the stock markets could fall further. I base my opinion on the large number of newly unemployed people that just came out for March 2020 and the fact that the consumer spending in the US in Q1 decreased. The 2019 Q4 consumer spending was $13,414 billion (USD). In the 1st quarter of 2020 it declined by 2% with wages and salaries, which is the largest part of incomes. Please look at the chart below. This not a good sign, especially when you consider that January and most of February of 2020 were good months. With most people self isolating in the homes, 2020 Q2 has the probability to be even worse than Q1.
September 2024. Consumer Spending in the United States increased to 16106.40 USD Billion in the third quarter of 2024 from 15967.30 USD Billion in the second quarter of 2024. Consumer Spending in the United States averaged 6600.59 USD Billion from 1947 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 16106.40 USD Billion in the third quarter of 2024 and a record low of 1351.40 USD Billion in the first quarter of 1947.
Updated September 18, 2024. Finally, the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a hefty half percentage point Wednesday, moving ahead with its first rate cut in four years and cheering markets that expected an emphatic move amid a softening jobs picture.
December 9, 2023. US employers added 199,000 workers to their payrolls last month in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said yesterday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down for the first time since July, to 3.7%. But the economy looks like it is still too good for Powell. The upbeat numbers make it less likely that the Fed will lower interest rates in early 2024.
December 1, 2023. The Wall Street Journal believes that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are probably over, even though officials are reluctant to say so. The Fed’s Jerome Powell warns against prematurely declaring victory on inflation.
May 3, 2023. The Fed raised the interest rate 0.25% today for the 10th consecutive time. This will move the target range to 5% to 5.25%, which is a 16-year high to try to curb inflation.
April 26, 2023: First Republic Bank cast a shadow over the stock market yesterday. The regional lender, which experienced the unpleasantness of losing over $100 billion in deposit outflows last quarter, crashed to a record low. But the reality is that First Republic’s condition is so bad that they could potentially ask the US government to intervene.
Updated March 22, 2023: Awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision. Many expect a smaller 25 basis point hike.
In the afternoon, Powell announced the decision of the monetary policy meeting. The Federal Reserve raised the interest rates by 25 basis points. This move brings the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. However, Fed Chair Powell indicates that future hikes are less likely in the wake of the recent bank failures.
Updated March 21, 2023:
This is the first day of a two monetary policy meeting for the Federal Reserve. At the closing stock market bell today the major averages climbed as the the U.S. Treasury Secretary made reassuring comments about shoring up the banking system. The Dow finished up close to 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose slightly more than 1%.
Many are expecting the FOMC to ratchet up its key interest rate by 50 basis points because the economy appeared to be surprisingly robust. But with three U.S. banks collapsing, the Fed policymakers may have to rethink their expectations. It seems that even more uncertainty may lie ahead.
CPI for October 2022 was 7.7%, but less than the 7.9% that analysts had expected. It seems that inflation has more or less flatlined at an abnormally high level since spring 2022. As a result, the stock market rockets higher Thursday morning. Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rates increases that have weighed on the market.
U.S. employers added 261,000 jobs in October, down from September’s upwardly revised gain of 315,000, but above the 200,000 economists had expected, as jobs in health care, technical services, and manufacturing rose. The unemployment rate also climbed, edging up to 3.7% in October from 3.5% in September.
Updated September 14, 2022:
After a report for August 2022 which CPI came in higher than anticipated yesterday, the U.S. markets did a nosedive. The Dow and S&P 500 sank about 3% and the Nasdaq went down 4%. Core inflation rose to 0.6% in August, up from July’s 0.3% gain. If you look at the annual basis for core inflation, it accelerated to 6.3%, up for 5.9%. In conclusion, a higher than expected inflation rate will likely strengthen the Fed for more aggressive interest rate hikes. The FOMC will have a meeting on September 20-21, 2022 and will likely vote on a 75 bps rate hike.
Updated June 22, 2022:
As the chart below shows, consumer spending in the United States increased to $13,924.80 billion (USD) in the first quarter of 2022 from $13,818.40 billion (USD) in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Dalio believes are are in a New World with massive debt on our hands. I have to agree that Ray Dalio predicts of end of long-term debt cycle appears to be real.
The other chart I would like to post is a chart of the psychology of a market cycle. As we all know, the stock market was on a bull tear until late February 2020. Then it crashed. Then there was a bounce all the way up to 61.8% Fib level.
On the chart below, you can see the big bounce up to where it says “Return to normal.” I am expecting stocks to go back down and to at least to retest the lows of March 23, 2020.
Psychology Of A Market Cycle. Photo credit: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography Hofstra University.
Please stay safe and stay isolated as much as possible during and after the COVID-19. I will see you for my next blog. Best wishes to all….
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Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
Invest Wisely In The Stock Market Photo credit: Unsplash
Updated December 16, 2024. Myself and our team are commonly asked the question about how to invest wisely in the stock market. The answer to that question is that we really like the value investing approach. Generally, value investing involves selecting stocks whose share price is below its intrinsic value or book value. Warren Buffett is an example of value investing. Warren Buffett will buy a stock thinking that he could hold it for years without ever considering selling it. Trying to day trade or invest in the stock market on a short term basis will just add stress to your life. The reality is that no one knows what the markets will do in the short term. With this in mind, we highly recommend long term buy and hold strategies to will help you to create everlasting and perhaps generational wealth.
Volatile Markets
Updated December 13, 2024:
Barron’s predicts that the Stock Market Could Gain Another 20% in 2025. They say that Wall Street’s market forecasts are too tepid. Barron’s predicts that the S&P 500 could rally next year on a combination of AI growth and deregulation. But investors should prepare for a wilder ride.
Updated December 12, 2024:
Yes, 2024 was full of turmoil. Where to begin? Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. Joe Biden dropped out of the U.S. presidential race. China conducted more, and bigger, military drills around Taiwan. The French and German governments collapsed. Then, On December 8, 2024, armed rebels took the Syrian city of Damascus, forcing long-time ruler President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country. al-Assad fled Syria and now lives in Moscow, Russia with his family after being granted asylum.
All this chaotic news did not make markets flinch even one tiny bit. As of this writing, globally stocks are up around 22% since January 2024, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up more than 30%. In other words, all the bearish predictions for 2024 were way overblown, if not outright wrong. This was a good reminder about the perils of trying to time the market based on forecasts or your personal feelings about the world.
Updated November 28, 2023:
The USA Today reported that fears over a possible hard landing for the U.S. economy have subsided throughout the year.
The S&P 500 has gained a surprising 19% year to date in 2023. However, many of those gains have been concentrated in the technology and communication services sectors.
Updated October 13, 2022:
The markets sank in the morning after the Labor Department reported consumer prices jumped more than expected in September. U.S. equities roared back from big losses to post significant gains. The Dow had a 1,500-point swing, ending with a 827-point advance.
Updated September 14, 2022:
After a report for August 2022 which CPI came in higher than anticipated yesterday, the U.S. markets did a nosedive. The Dow and S&P 500 sank about 3% and the Nasdaq went down 4%. Core inflation rose to 0.6% in August, up from July’s 0.3% gain. If you look at the annual basis for core inflation, it accelerated to 6.3%, up for 5.9%. In conclusion, a higher than expected inflation rate will likely strengthen the Fed for more aggressive interest rate hikes. The FOMC will have a meeting on September 20-21, 2022 and will likely vote on a 75 bps rate hike.
Updated January 24, 2020:
On January 24, 2020, the S&P 500 index fell for its biggest one-day loss since October 8, 2019. But then the Fed, with their “expanded balance sheet” pumped more money into the markets to avoid the stocks from free falling. The good news is that it worked for almost a month. But, the big question many people are asking is what is the best way to invest wisely in the stock market?
Updated February 2020:
The last week of February the Dow industrials plunged 3,600 points. Consequently, the Dow’s weekly skid would rank within its top 15 in its 124-year history. In addition to this, the S&P 500 marks the fastest correction from a record in history. As a result, Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, may be one of the few to acknowledge that something isn’t right with a market that was just enjoying a record close days ago. “This is not normal, and the market is clearly indicating to us a change,” Lee said in a research report on Friday.
COVID-19 Still Continues
Meanwhile, the coronavirus outbreak continues. Indeed, the coronavirus has spread to all continents except Antarctica. On March 2, 2020, The New York Times says the coronavirus has infected 90,000 people, and killed more than 3,000.
Then the last week of February 2020 arrived. The stock market bulls have been saying that nothing could keep the market from hitting new highs. But the investors could not avoid the fact that there is no cure for the coronavirus and many believe the price of stocks is hefty.
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway
On March 2, 2020, Warren Buffet appears to be bullish about the direction of stocks, sitting on $128 billion in cash. But this chart of Buffett’s record cash pile appears to tell something different.
In March 2020 Buffett Is Holding $128 billion In Short-Term Bonds. Photot credit: Marketwatch & Real Investment Advice.
However, when looking at Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Holdings, RIA Advisors strategist Lance Armstrong is more pessimistic about the markets. He says, “Follow the money. If he thinks stocks will outperform bonds why is holding $128 billion in short-term bonds?”
November 2,2024. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile reached $325.2 billion in the third quarter, a record for the conglomerate, as Warren Buffett continued to refrain from major acquisitions as he fears corporate taxes will rise.
December 3, 2023. Daniel Foelber wrote in The Motley Fool that the passing of Charlie Munger on November 28, 2023 marked the end of a chapter for longtime fans of Berkshire Hathaway. Munger lived 99 years and 11 months. Munger often spoke less than Warren Buffett during the company’s famous annual meetings in Omaha, Nebraska. But his wit and wry sense of humor lightened the mood and complemented Buffett’s bouncy cadence perfectly.
In valuing Berkshire Hathaway it is, without a doubt, a very complicated business to access. But at its core, the value comes from its public equity portfolio, cash, insurance business, BNSF railroad, BHE, and its manufacturing, service, and retailing segment.
Berkshire stock looks cheap even when assigning conservative values to all these moving parts. But it’s easy to see why it is probably undervalued, even though the stock is near an all-time high.
If we assume a 15 P/E on the manufacturing, service, and retailing business and add in the cash position, and Berkshire Hathaway would be worth $1.08 trillion. Berkshire stock looks cheap even when assigning conservative values and Daniel Foelber believes it is unquestionably a buy.
June 24, 2022. Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett goes on a spending spree and is now deploying billions of dollars in 2022. In 2022, it’s not just growth stocks are quickly selling off, but value stocks have gotten cheaper as well.
As a result, Buffett’s buying is sending a signal to all value investors. He is basically saying that stocks are now cheap and it’s a great idea to purchase noteworthy stocks when they are on sale.
What Berkshire Is Buying In 2022:
Chevron CVX. Chevron is one of the largest energy companies in the United States. Berkshire already owns some shares, but Buffet bought more making Chevron 7% of of the portfolio.
Occidental Petroleum OXY. Occidental Petroleum is now dirt cheap. Berkshire bought billions of dollars of Occidental Petroleum, pushing it up to the 6th largest position in the portfolio at 3.57%.
Citigroup C. Citigroup’s shares are down by a third. But Citigroup is also one of the cheaper large banks, with a forward P/E of 7.5. It also pays one of the higher dividends, currently yielding 3.9%.
Ally Financial ALLY. Ally Financial is also dirt cheap. It is trading with a forward P/E of just 5. Ally Financial pays a dividend yielding 3.1%.
Paramount Global PARA. Paramount Global is a global media company with many brands including Paramount, Showtime, MTV and other brands. Paramount Global’s earnings are expected to decline 23.6% in 2022, but it pays a dividend yielding 3%.
4 Passive Income Strategies For Stocks
Below are four passive income strategies for stocks that will help grow your wealth over time. Investing on a regular basis rather than trying to time a lump sum investment can help you become a more disciplined investor. You’re forced to invest regardless of whether the price is high or low. This takes some of the emotion out of investing and avoids any delays in putting your money to work. Most financial planners advise saving between 10% and 15% of your annual income.
An index fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund designed to follow certain preset rules so that the fund can track a specified basket of underlying investments.
To select an index fund, first decide what stock market index or indexes you want to keep track of. The next step is to find the fund whose performance closely correlates with that index. Look at the funds that has a low expense ratio. Ideally look for a low expense ratio which denotes the annual management fee for that fund.
1. Dividends
A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When the stock of a company posts quarterly earnings, it is abl eto pay a proportion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. The shareholder has to decide if the want the dividend distributed to them or if they want to re-invest in the business with the dividend.
It is very important to only invest in dividend stocks wisely. Remember to only invest in companies that you belive in long-term with strong growth and fundamentals, not just because they pay you a high dividend. If you are looking for dividend champions, check out the following companies and there dividends below.
Possible Dividend Champions
Becton, Dickinson, & Company (BDX). 5-year expected returns: 9.5%. Becton, Dickinson & Co., or BD,is a global leader in the medical supply industry.
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV). 5-year expected returns: 9.8%. AbbVie is a pharmaceutical company spun off by Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 2013. Its most important product is Humira, which is now facing biosimilar competition in Europe, which has had a noticeable impact on the company.
Novartis AG (NVS). 5-year expected returns: 10.3%. Novartis is a Europe-based healthcare company. The company’s Innovative Medicines division offers medicines in the areas of oncology, cardiovascular, dermatology, respiratory and several others.
Eagle Financial Services (EFSI). 5-year expected returns: 10.6%. Eagle Financial Services serves retail and commercial customers and offers consumer, mortgage and commercial loans as well as other banking services.
AT&T Inc. (T). 5-year expected returns: 11.5%. AT&T is the largest communications company in the world, operating in three distinct business units: AT&T Communications, WarnerMedia, and AT&T Latin America.
Enbridge Inc. (ENB). 5-year expected returns: 12.9%. Enbridge is an oil & gas company that operates the following segments: Liquids Pipelines, Gas Distributions, Energy Services, Gas Transmission & Midstream, and Green Power & Transmission.
2. REITs
REIT stands for real estate investment trust. A REIT is a way to buy stock in a company that just owns real estate and in exchange for giving them your money as an investment, they will pay you back some of their profits in the form of a dividend.
REITs can specialize in anything from medical buildings, shopping centers, senior care facilities or residential buildings. This a way that you can own part of company without having to go through the hassles of finding the right deal, doing inspections, coming up with the money, and then physically purchasing a property.
When doing your research of possible REITs I would suggest looking at:
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) provides attractive exposure to real estate to real estate through the ownership of U.S. real estate investment trusts. The portfolio spans all end markets, from industrial to residential to health care.
Due to its REIT ownership, VNQ offers income as well. The effective yield, adjusted for return of capital, is a healthy 2.33%. That’s better than the 10-year Treasury bond and a nice addition to the diversification and has a low expense ratio of 0.12%. Other REITs like the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) have an expense ratio of 0.42%. When you compare the 0.12% against other REITs it doesn’t looks pretty good.
3. Index Funds
Index funds are a basket of stocks that you could buy into individually, but index funds have the advantage that you can buy into the fund instantaneously. This gives you the best diversification because you can access many different stocks and it is incredibly easy to do.
Investing in the S&P 500 index funds is perhaps the closest way to guarantee wealth accumulation over time. To get you started, these are some funds to have a look at:
Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund (SWPPX)
Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund (SWPPX) is an official S&P 500 index fund and it is the cheapest with an expense ratio of 0.02%. In other words, if you invest $1000, your annual is just $0.20. The good news is that your returns are pretty much the same as the S&P 500 index. According to MarketWatch, the turnover percent is 4% and the dividend is $1.04 annually.
Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX)
Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX) is an index that is designed to reflect the performance of the U.S. equity market. FZROX is a float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to reflect large, mid, and small capitalization stocks. This fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the total return of a broad range of U.S. stocks. Another good advantage is that the expense ratio for FZROX is impossible to beat at 0%. According to MarketWatch, the turnover percent is 6% and the dividend is $0.17 annually.
Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX)
Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX) is very similar to an S&P 500 index fund because it tracks an index of over 500 U.S. large-cap stocks. However, this fund is not a official S&P 500 index fund, so it avoids paying licensing fees that are expensive to the S&P’s parent company. As a result, the FNILX has a 0% expense ratio. If you are just beginning to invest, another key point is that there is no minimum investment for contributions to this fund. According to MarketWatch, the turnover percent is 5% and the dividend is $0.16 annually.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX)
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX). VTSAX seeks to track the performance of the overall total market. This fund uses an indexing investment approach to track the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index. The CRSP U.S. Total Market Index is a fund that has almost 4,000 companies across the mega. large, small, and micro capitalizations, representing nealy 100% of the U.S. investible equity market. The expense ratio is 0.04%. According to MarketWatch, the turnover percent is 8% and the dividend is $0.32 quarterly.
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI). VTI is an exchange-traded fund if you do not want to have a mutual fund index. This fund seeks to track the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index. The expense ratio is 0.03%. According to MarketWatch, the turnover percent is 8%.
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF (VUG)
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF (VUG). If you can afford to take on more risk in the pursuit of higher rewards, the tech heavy, exchange-traded, Vanguard Growth ETF VUG is a solid pick. The fund tracks the CRSP U.S. Large Cap Growth Index, which looks a lot like the S&P 500 Growth Index.It invests in each of 255 U.S. large-cap growth stocks. The tech stocks are heavily represented, accounting for 47% of its holdings, while energy stocks and utility stocks comprise only 0.3% combined. The expense ratio is 0.04%.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (BND)
Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (BND). For passive investors, the U.S. seems like the simpler choice when compared to Europe and Asia. Interest rates in Europe are artificially low, with some corporate bonds offering negative yields. Meanwhile, in Asia and emerging markets, risks are naturally higher. There are plenty of bond funds that are more aggressive and potentially could offer higher returns. But few offer the same peace of mind as BND which provides broad exposure to investment-grade American bonds.
4. Diversify With The All Weather Portfolio
Are you concerned about your investment in your portfolio of stocks? Would you like to sleep better with less stress at night? To do this you need to invest wisely in the stock market. Therefore, we highly recommend long term buy and hold strategies to will help you to create everlasting wealth.
This would be an excellent time to mention Ray Dalio. For those not familiar, Ray Dalio is the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, which manages $160 billion in assets. Ray Dalio is one hedge fund manager known for its all weather investing strategy.
Ray Dalio’s portfolio was back tested for the last 75 years. In the last 75 years it has been right 85% of the time. However, in the 15% that it wasn’t doing well its average mean was 1.6%, not a 50%, 40% , 30%, or 20% loss. In conclusion, his biggest loss was less than 4% and that was in 2008 when the market exploded.
30% stocks, even though stocks traditionally grow at 9.2% a year.
40% long term treasuries
15% intermediate term treasuries
7.5% gold
7.5% commodities
Rebalance these allocations once every year.
As you can see gold is an inflation hedge and a safe haven in unstable markets and a way to diversify risk. I like how the All Weather Portfolio is a balanced fund that works no matter what happens in the markets. I am thinking of designating some funds for this strategy in the long-term. What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments below.
My Favorite Stock Market Commentaries
If you want to know more about how to invest wisely in the stock market, we recommend the commentaries below to give you a greater perspective:
Best Daily Market Commentary
Mott Capital Management and the owner Michael Kramer is one of the best people to follow and read on a constistent basis. He always gives you his unbiased opinion on where the market is and where is likely to go. As many investors know, sometimes the market will have multiple events in a week. So, hold on.
I am a value investor. Find good stocks and hold on to them for many years. That way you don’t have to worry about the micro-direction of the market from one day to the next and you can sleep a lot better. If you are interested in signing up for free commentary from Michael, go to mottcapitalmanagement.com. If you like it, you can subscribe as well for more content.
Best YouTube Trading Channel
In my opinion one of the best YouTube channels for the stock market is ShadowTrader. The host is Peter Reznicek. I have been watching this channel for more than six months and my conclusion is that Peter is an amazing person because he gets it right so much of the time. Many people know that the markets will tell you the story. So don’t try to go against the market or you will get crushed big time.
When I say Peter gets it right, I mean that sooner or later the markets will conform upward or downward to the directional prices that he gives out in his videos. His knowledge is phenomenal to watch, no matter what trading level you are at. This week’s title is “Buyers Shut Off”. Check out Peter Reznicek. He goes in-depth on his interpretation of what has happened and his predictions of key levels to watch.
In the chart below, everything to the right of the chart is bullish. Everything to the left of the chart is bearish. As you can clearly see, a clear majority of the past presidents enjoyed bullish markets. If you were trying to short the market you would lose your cash very quickly. Most of the analysts after the stock market crash are saying to buy the dip. The important question is: WHEN?
Presidents and their impact on the stock market. Photo credit: investopedia.com
Updated June 24, 2022. The chart below shows the end of President Trump in office and the beginning of President Biden. As we know, Biden is in the difficult position of the Fed printing trillions of dollars and then dealing with inflation as the price of oil and food continues to increase. So such for how to invest wisely in the stock market. As we have seen, through June 2022, the stock market prices are decreasing as inflation continues to go up.
June 24, 2022 Update. Presidents and their impact on the stock market. Photo credit: investopedia.com
You Are Responsible For Your Investments
Let’s go back to the original question about how to invest wisely in the stock market. Remember, you are ultimately in charge of your own investments. If you don’t feel comfortable being in the stock market maybe wait until the timing is better. As an alternative, you can always put your investment in a high interest savings account. The return wouldn’t be as good as investing in the stock market, but you will not lose money either.
On the other hand, if you are on the path to increase your wealth, congratulations! I encourage you to continue to learn how to invest wisely in the stock market. Investing in the stock market will definitely grow your investments long term. However, please understand that most people make money from their careers and then they invest their money in the stock market. Warren Buffett is a rare exception to this rule.
With is in mind, one of the best ways to increase your wealth is through real estate. Of the people who are millionaires, an astounding 90% got their wealth by investing in real estate. Real estate is one of the best ways to seek wealth and achieve financial freedom. I invite you to read our article Best Real Estate Strategies To Make 7 Figures.
What popular articles and blogs do you recommend?
Further Reading on FinancialGoodness.com: For more articles and blogs, please check out our guides on how to increase your net worth.
Last Updated on December 16, 2024 by Financial Goodness
Financial Goodness
George Alexander Roy III and our team are experts in helping you to seek wealth through investing and tips on how to succeed. Join us at FinancialGoodness.com to increase your knowledge and skills through education in the areas of personal finance; real estate; investments; digital marketing; comparison of the best states to form LLC’s and comporations; and the best AI app for increasing your fluency in English.
George has been an owner of a residential real estate investment business that focuses on wholesaling, fix & flip, and long-term buy-and-hold property strategies with a consistent increase of annual revenues. Undoubtedly, the tax laws in the United States and Colombia, South America offer some very favorable tax incentives for owning real estate.
Consequently, as an entrepreneur, researcher, writer, and speaker I have sought the truth in everything I do, no matter how difficult. Hopefully this value and service will help each person achieve their financial freedom sooner.
